Hope on the Horizon
Better treatments, vaccines under development for COVID-19
Kate McCarthy, September 12, 2020
Vaccine hopes
Promising news was delivered last week when Scott Morrison announced a vaccine deal with the University of Queensland, with biotech company CSL ready to manufacture 51 million doses after clinical trials and approval.
If trials are successful the first doses of the UQ vaccine will be ready for release in mid-2021.
Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty said that while we haven’t seen any data on the vaccines under development, we should see data coming through from human trials by October or November this year at the latest.
“The UQ vaccine is quite a bit behind the others, but I think it will be a very good vaccine. CSL is committed to making this vaccine and they have the technology to manufacture it very quickly if the government were to order it now, but we have to wait until the trials are completed and the vaccine is approved.”
Scott Morrison announced on August 19 that he had signed a deal with UK company AstraZeneca for a COVID-19 vaccine for Australia developed by Oxford University’s Jenner Institute. The news received mixed reactions given no plan was outlined for the manufacture and distribution of the vaccine.
Some cynics suggested Morrison’s surprise Oxford vaccine announcement was merely a ploy to lift our spirits at a time when his government was facing intense scrutiny over their failures in managing the aged care sector.
CSL announced about two weeks later that they had signed a deal with AstraZeneca to manufacture 30 million doses of the Oxford University vaccine. Mercifully, trials of the vaccine have now resumed after they were halted when one of the trial candidates had an adverse reaction.
Professor Doherty warned that there is no scope for cutting corners when developing a new vaccine, especially in relation to safety.
“CSL can mass-produce a vaccine by next year, but we have to wait for clinical trials to be completed — we can’t speed those up.”
Successful treatments
Another beacon of hope is better treatments. Professor Doherty said treatment drugs are improving slowly, but incrementally.
“Dexamethasone has been a big help in reducing deaths in Australia, but there are some side-effects and it has to be managed very carefully. It’s used at ICU level for very elderly patients or for patients with a lot of co-morbidities.
There is no blindingly good drug yet, but we expect better treatments to be released later this year after trials.
As long as people get optimum health care and access to effective treatments, death rates will continue to fall in Victoria.”
Professor Doherty believes effective treatment drugs are another way out of the pandemic as it becomes clearer that Victorians are struggling under the weight of lockdowns.
“The number of people being admitted to hospital (in Victoria) is in decline — that is a key indicator as to whether we need to lockdown or not.
If our hospital system comes under severe pressure and we don’t have enough ICU beds or enough available health care workers, then the death rates will go up, but that isn’t happening in Victoria. The key issue is what our hospitals can handle.
One of the other reasons Australia has a relatively low death rate to COVID-19 compared with other countries is because we have a very good, free public health- care system. In comparison, the US has had a much worse outcome because of their failing health care system.”
Mandatory COVID-19 vaccine?
On whether a COVID-19 vaccine should be made mandatory, Professor Doherty was unequivocal: it should be voluntary, except for certain workers, such as those working in health and aged care settings.
“Resistance to a COVID-19 vaccine will be a bigger problem in the US than in Australia. I think it should be voluntary, except for certain professions, for example health care.
I would be very surprised if there were many refusers. We should get the vaccine out there as fast as possible. Business owners should be able to require staff to be vaccinated.
Unvaccinated people will have to be excluded from aged care facilities and should not be allowed contact with people who have disabilities or other vulnerable groups. Pub owners, cafe owners and shop owners should have the right to refuse entry to anyone who is unvaccinated.”
Aggressive suppression or elimination?
The feeling that Victorians are at the end of their tether is palpable, especially since there is now a perception that the goal posts have shifted — from aggressive suppression to elimination of the virus.
Professor Doherty says, however, that there is little difference between the two strategies, as both require stringent measures.
“Aggressive suppression and elimination basically mean the same thing. Either way, Victoria needs to get numbers down to the same levels as NSW and manage it before we can think about opening up again.”
When will lockdown end?
Professor Doherty said that with case numbers so low in regional Victoria, there is no reason for them to be locked down now.
“Rural Victoria has no cases, so it would be ridiculous to keep them locked down.”
The lockdown finish line, which seemed so close in Victoria, now seems elusive.
With retail shops shuttered, students learning remotely and families and friends unable to socialise for what seems an interminably long time, news of effective treatments and potential vaccines is promising.
As we wait for the vaccines to complete their trial phases, Professor Doherty is optimistic that new treatments are proving to be effective at preventing deaths and forging a pathway out of the COVID-19 quagmire.
Better treatments, until now considered to be the poor cousin to vaccines, may be the piece of the puzzle we so desperately need to unlock our freedom and loosen restrictions sooner than we dare to hope.